Desert Fans Episode 1: Preseason (From 2021)

 

Desert Fans Episode 1: Preseason

It was the summer of 2000 when I first saw the Phil Steele College Football book. Or maybe 2001. Either way, I became convinced that he was the smartest guy in the game, and win or lose he was so passionate about college football that he could explain almost everything and it makes sense. I do not buy his magazine every year, but I know what he is doing, and I look at his rankings and predictions, and I think that he knows the future the best, because he studies the most and takes in the most factors.

This season while some of us are far from our favorite campuses, I felt excited to do some reporting on our favorite teams. I will share some Steele and other thoughts, but I will certainly inject my own. First, the Phil Steele picks according to which teams we are covering (seven total).

4. Clemson Tigers

5. Georgia Bulldogs

7. Notre Dame Irish

16. Miami Hurricanes

18. Indiana Hoosiers

UNRANKED: Brigham Young Cougars

UNRANKED: Auburn Tigers

1) Clemson has been one of the most dominant teams nationally for the last four years, mostly while their stud Trevor Lawrence was at the helm. They have a ton of talent back; they have rolled the ACC pretty handily. Will they hit a snag, potentially, this year? Right off the bat September 5^th they have Georgia, rated number 5. It should be a big litmus test for sure. That may be the biggest game of the weekend in the whole country in terms of top finishes for all teams going into the season, as an overall body for best record produced. We shall see. 

Georgia Tech may not provide much competition week three, although the running game that Tech offers does get some defenses overwhelmed. In total, the Clemson schedule does not look that difficult (Syracuse gave them a scare recently), and so after the Bulldogs, perhaps these Tigers are looking to finish strong, early loss to Georgia or no. The only other ACC teams ranked in the top 25 (according to Steel), are Miami and North Carolina, and the Tigers of South Carolina play neither until possibly the ACC Championship, likely the first weekend of December. Florida State and Louisville are traditionally strong opponents, so there are some teams to be reckoned with. You never know. But Steele has them picked to do well. 11-1 or 12-0 records seem likely, 13-0 if they win out in December.

2) Georgia, Georgia, Georgia. So close, but so far from the national title! Sorry, Bulldog fans, I get it. I wish you had beaten Alabama a number of times. Or LSU, or Clemson, or Oklahoma, or whomever you came up short against. Florida? The SEC is not easy at all, we know. We already discussed the big September opener that Georgia hosts, which everyone cares about. Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky may test them in October, and maybe even Missouri and Tennessee may prove tough after that, but perhaps this is the Dogs’ year to go to the SEC championship and nail the Tide? We shall see. 

I will be a Georgia guy that day, if that is how it plays out. (Steele has ‘Bama number two after Oklahoma). To me, Alabama is number one until proven otherwise. Can anyone please beat them? I would root for teams that I normally hate, like USC or Florida State, if that could only happen. (War Eagle? More on them in a sec).

3) The Irish of Notre Dame. Forever spurning the Big Ten to join as a conference competitor, perhaps something may change now that the two best Big 12 programs are joining the Southeastern Conference to make a super group of 16. The Big Ten is at 14 schools, if you did not know. The Atlantic Coast Conference is at 14. The Irish mostly play the latter, with a good sprinkling of the former. The Golden Domers open with Florida State. Permission from yours truly to drop them by 40! I think I really started disliking FSU when they were consistently beating my teams, and they acted like that was normal. Maybe it was normal, but no more! 

The Irish will face a bevy of ranked opponents, to include Wisconsin, Cincinnati, UNC, and some perennial bowl teams like Navy, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Stanford. No easy schedule, but doable if the Irish really are as good as Steele predicts. It all starts September 6^th; enjoy. Win by one or 30, please beat the Seminoles. Watch out for Purdue, too, they can louse up a whole season. I know this all too well. Watch out for the Cardinal, too, but hosting in South Bend should make that more tenable.

4) The U.

Miami and all that swagger, we know what goes on. We see it. There will not be much of a bigger ‘Cane fan than me when they match up with the Crimson Tide September 4^th. Game ON ! Oh, as much as my world was rocked by BYU upsetting powerhouse Miami in 1990, how would it be if the mighty Tide were to fall that Thursday night? Oh, it gives me chills to contemplate in the 115 degrees where I commonly find myself. The schedule for Miami of Florida (I grew up about 2 hours from Miami, Ohio) does not look too threatening. 

Some are picking Michigan State to be among the worst in the Big Ten, and I am not sure if Virginia Tech or Virginia will be that good this year, but both programs offer some challenges. UNC and even Florida State may prove problematic, but I could see the ‘Canes doing well this season. Super-duper if things work out in early September. No matter what, Miami should be a formidable team this year. Would they line up with Clemson in the ACC championship? Seems likely. If so, go ‘Canes again! (Nothing personal against the Tiger fans. I was happy y’all beat ‘Bama a few years ago, for sure.)

5) Indiana Hoosiers. We are ranked! It takes some getting used to, absorbing that. I say “we”, because not only did I grow up a short walk from campus, but I ended up getting a certified degree there, too. I am a Hoosier, and the Hoosiers are me. We open with Iowa on September 4^th; they are not ranked by Steele, which is good. But I have seen the Cream and Crimson get stomped by the Hawkeyes, so I take nothing for granted. The Bearcats of Cincy will be a big test, then Penn State and Ohio State are ranked. The Nittany Lions had us all but beat last year; IU barely got a last-minute TD to tie it, and then a favorable call to score a two point conversion for the win in Over Time. Lucky, really lucky. 

IU also gave the Buckeyes a little scare, and the pandemic shortened season was one of Indiana’s best ever, despite losing to a so-so SEC Mississippi team in the bowl. IU has to handle the lesser Big Ten teams, and it could be a special season the Cream and Crimson. Like a lot of years, if we do not beat Purdue likely it will not be a good season. Minnesota might be a big test, and Maryland can be an unknown sometimes. Oh, yeah, then there is Michigan. Could we make it two in a row, instead of just twice upsetting them in my entire life? (I am old, too.) The Wolverines. Life is great when IU beats them. We shall see.

6) Auburn Tigers. I guess War Damn is a thing, so I hear. I love to see the cross-state rival put down the bullies of Nick Saban, apparently now the best college football coach of all time, even surpassing Bear Bryant. Incredible. I am more tired of the Tide than I am of Tom Brady. I know that the NFL is different, but you know what I mean. Auburn opens with two easy victims before facing Penn State September 19. I expect basketball scores for the Tigers till then, against the Zips (yes, Akron is called that) and the Alabama State (FCS lower division team) I have no ideas. 

October gets going strong with LSU, Georgia, and the rest of the SEC foes until the Iron Bowl on November 27. I will be extremely happy if Alabama could lose twice or thrice in a regular season. How about once? Auburn should have a good season, I predict. As mentioned before, the SEC is not easy at all. Even the “bad” teams can beat most other schools. I won’t mind seeing Auburn and other traditional SEC teams dumping on Texas and Oklahoma in the near future. Change is now.

7) Brigham Young University Cougars. My parents became church members before I was born, and then I learned to dig the grid iron Cougs as Lavell Edwards brought them out of obscurity. I later attended there, and now I try to see them play anywhere along the East Coast. I would have driven to Georgia Southern this fall, but the desert life beckons. BYU opens with a predicted easy Arizona Wildcats on September 5, but then we (yes, I am alumni) got arch rival Utah the next weekend. If BYU loses to ‘Zona, the season could get ugly. If we crush the Cats and then beat Utah, finally after nine long, painful years of frustration, then the season might be special like last season. 

During the pandemic lock down last year the brain trust in Provo smartly readjusted its schedule because the many Big Ten and PAC 12 cancellations forced the Y to get mostly weaker opponents, which the later number two NFL pick quarterback Zach Wilson showed that BYU was a good team. It lost in a close one to last minute scheduled Coastal Carolina, which was a surprisingly good team to everyone, and BYU cruised in its bowl to finish 11-1, one of its best seasons ever. BYU has some tougher teams to play this year, to include possibly ranked team Arizona State, Boise State, and USC. If it can handle Baylor and Virginia, major conference teams (called Power Five schools), and take care of the smaller teams like Utah State and South Florida, then this could be a ranked year for BYU.

But, Phil Steele does not have them there. That worries me. However, based on personal expectations and real history, I have more reasons to think that BYU will outperform predictions than Indiana. Once bitten, or a hundred times bitten, many times over shy. I love to see my teams win. I am sure you get a charge from yours winning, scoring, shutting down their opponents on a sunny fall day or a crisp, chilly evening. Being in a desert and somewhat isolated as many of us are, these schools, teams, players, re-connect us to what we love. Guys and fans and bands and commentators celebrating the best of the best.

Here’s to college football in 2021. Enjoy, and get ready for some fun and drama. The good kind.

Further context on predictions and rankings.

BYU was not ranked, nor was Auburn, according to Steele, who could be wrong. Athlon Sports has a prediction for all 130 FBS schools by season’s end, which are the following per the ones sampled above:

BYU –51

Auburn –29

Indiana—21

Miami—14

Notre Dame—12

Georgia—5

Clemson—2

Also, a good number of the opponents of the above teams like Iowa, Arizona State, and Boise State are ranked top 25 by Athlon Sports which were not rated as such by Mr. Steele. Athlon picks Alabama as number one, so maybe Ohio State or another team, like the Clemson/Georgia winner, might be the final season champ. Should be interesting, as always. 

I tend to wonder if a PAC-12 team could run the table, which has not happened since Southern California in 2003 and 2004, the former shared with Louisiana State, the latter with an asterisk because of cheating allegations. Perhaps a team like Washington could shock everyone. Likely not. Athlon has them at 22, although Phil Steele predicts them as number 9. Talking over things with another fan, we realized that Georgia has a lot of good or great teams, but never gets over the hump to win it all. Washington seems to be the same way. Great players, strong teams, but like Oregon, cannot put it all together.

01 August 2021

 

I edited a bit a year plus later multiple sets of eyes... better.