Complexities of Syria Fighting and Parties’ Participation and Interests

Despite the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the Russian government, perhaps more than China, is the single biggest opponent to U.S. interests and Western liberalism in the 2020s. China may end up being a greater threat in a few years, but for now it is Russia. Both Russia and China, as all globalizing powers, have heavy or intrinsic stakes in the liberal world economy. Money is life.

Syria is one flashpoint for real rub-up entities of geo-political realism, which many social scientists view, more or less, as over-governed by the two or three (maybe five or seven?) world powers. For much of the 20^th century after WWII, the two powers were the U.S.A and U.S.S.R. A bi-polar structure. Perhaps as suggested, today’s world is multi-polar, based on the subsequent rise of the People’s Republic of China, and the consolidation of the European powers, as in the European Union. Other countries and organizations wield real power and influence, of course, like OPEC (mostly Arab oil-rich nations), or Japan, Brazil, or India; these places and their governments exert large quantities of influence. One could say Mexico and Colombia do too. Turkey is powerful, and others.

Where does the rubber meet the road in the world today when it comes to the biggest world participants? Apart from the now half year war fought in Ukraine, there is Syria. Who are the actors?

On one side we have: The United States, U.S. allies, Turkey (has its own place among NATO partners), anti-Assad Arab forces, Israel, anti-Assad Kurds, the Arab nations of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and others, like U.A.E. and Qatar. On the other side there is Russia, the Syrian Assad regime, Shia militants, to include pro-Irani Shia militias and proxies, and the outlier of ISIS, and a few other designated terrorist organizations, like the Nusra Front and those that espouse Islamic sharia over secular governments.

In the wake of the Arab Spring of 2011, many thought a fait accompli was the removal of the traditional Alawite Arab dictator in Damascus, Bashar Al-Assad. Pro-U.S. freedom forces, as well as pro-jihadi groups were on their way to change the old regime of the Al-Assad legacy, the de facto monarchy of this ancient land, more recently aligned with the Soviet/Russian socialist cause. We thought he was gone, but Russian military forces intervened in the fall of 2015, stopping that apparent eventuality.

Russia has stepped in militarily, as they did in Chechnya in the 1990s, Georgia in 2008, Crimea (Ukraine) in 2014. We do see a pattern. Syria 2015, Ukraine 2022. They have mercenaries and troops throughout the world, similar in some ways to the United States. They, as others, see us as the threat.

Al-Assad and his Alawite, pro-Shia group receives aid from Russia, to spite U.S. and other allied forces in the Middle East with their intentions to promote democracy. Assad allows the proliferation of Shia militant groups, like Iraq-based Kata’ib Hezbollah, and other pro-Irani forces mobilized as forces to assert power, but who still claim opposition to Sunni based militias and groups, to include ISIS, Nusra, and the Kurds.

The Kurds are sandwiched between international powers and interests. As usual. They try to stake out places to survive in Syria, Turkiye, Iraq, and Iran. They are in constant battle with the Turkish government, as this is an insurgency or quasi-civil war that has occurred for decades. The Kurds are not united, as they have differing organizations with different goals, some of them considered communist or socialist.

Israel watches what it considers existential threats to its equities, to include anyone who sides with Iran, which includes Lebanese Hezbollah and Sunni groups within Palestine, to included Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and sometimes more traditional Palestinian parties like Fatah, which is the normal power within the West Bank.

Do we see the mess that Syria is? Can we wrap our heads around the vested interests of the United States and Russia? Both want power, influence, money, leverage, territory. Like the times of the Cold War, people in dirtier or poorer climes are fighting over the stakes and policies of the bigger powers. From 1945 to 1991, the Cold War meant millions of lives impacted in almost every continent.

The fighting has not stopped. Perhaps it never will. Syria, in a biblical setting, perhaps is a fulcrum of global, political, religious, economic, and cultural battles and wars.

Each party has their own interests.

1)      The U.S.: a hegemony of liberal trade and democratic institutions, giving political exceptions to monarchies that maintain friendly stances in the Arab Middle East. Some more cynically accuse the U.S. “war machine” of wanting what it wants: primacy and profits.

2)      Russia: a stronger base of its own influence of territorial, cultural, military, and financial interests. Prop up the Assad-controlled Syria

3)      U.S. NATO partners and coalition allies:  To have their own liberal economies and agendas bolstered regionally and worldwide. Also, to not be bullied or cowed by fossil fuel giant Russia, of which many depend on for their energy.

4)      Turkiye (current preferred spelling): the more autocratic Turkish, (Erdogan ensconcing himself politically), want to quell the Kurdish threat to their way of life, and assert more control over their borders. Turkiye takes in more Syrian refugees than any other country. They also want to maintain healthy trade with all nations, even Israel.

5)      Iran: seeks to assert its cultural, economic, and religious claims upon the Middle East. As the primary custodian of Shia legitimacy, it wants to take the holy cities of Saudi Arabia from the royal Saud family, who are Sunni, and the holy city of Jerusalem, which is shared by Jewish Israelis and Palestinian Sunni

6)      Iraq: Has Shia/Sunni/Christian populations that do not favor Iran, and participate with U.S./Coalition Forces

7)      Assad Syria- Proper: Maintain its capital, Damascus, and as much of the former country as possible, with aid from Russia, Iran, Shia Militias from Iraq

8)      Israel: Maintain primacy over itself, to include Eretz Israel (Palestinian territories); eliminate existential threats, especially Iran and its supporters

9)      Shia Militant groups: Mostly based out of Iraq, with colleagues in Lebanon, Syria, Iran

10)   Anti-Assad Arabs: Interested in taking Damascus and Syria, turn it into a more democratic country

11)   ISIS/Nusra/Jihadi violent extremists: impose their idea of sharia, Islamic government over as much territory as possible

12)   Anti-Assad Kurds: establish their own sovereign space and government among the five nations that they straddle; follow their own language and traditions