Muslim Issues in Russia. 2022 Conjecture.
I became
aware of Muslim state actors as a small child in 1979 when the Shia Muslim
regime took over the country of Iran from their king, a traditional monarch known
as the Shah. The U.S. Embassy in Teheran was famously taken over and our U.S.
embassy citizens were held hostage for over a year. The religious figure
Ayatollah Khomeini became the Irani terrorist rogue leader, much like the
despots that we have seen in Cuba and North Korea. There is one supreme leader
in the Republic of Iran, backed by other committees and clerics, under the
authority of the supposed consent of the people, in this case the top religious
leader in Persia. Cuba is under a secular communist setting with a despot, made
possible by violent overthrow of an alleged capitalist dictatorship in the
largest island of the Caribbean, while North Korea claimed a secular communist imprimatur
of the people, as any socialist or Marxist government asserts. Three
generations of a strong man and religious state cult have developed for the Kim
family there.
Cuba and
North Korea are more anomalous as Marxist bastions underlined by secular, yet
personalized autocracy, while there are many nations controlled or influenced
by Islam and its believers. Many of these nations are democratic, and others
ruled by monarchs are relatively peaceful. The Muslim world, or nations that
are predominantly populated by people of the Islamic faith, are very numerous
in the globe, especially through Asia and Africa. Turkiye borders into Europe;
there are large populations of Muslim majorities in Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia
and Herzegovina. With healthy Muslim minority numbers in many European
countries, those four in the southeast corner are notable. Across the gamut of
Muslim countries and regions there are democracies, monarchies, dictatorships,
and civil wars fracturing the seams across these nations, from Brunei to
Morocco, spanning millions of people and thousands of miles.
I will
list the Muslim predominant nations and their governments by region in Africa
and Asia. My point about Russian tension or overlap with the Muslim world in
Russia will be stated below these lists. The brief description of the government
is mostly my quick attempt to summarize them. Some of these governments and
their rules change quickly, based on coup d’états, revolutions, civil wars,
catastrophes, economic upheaval, and things of sudden happenstance. Part of the
question of the state is that no matter the form of governance, jihadi actors
are potentially prevalent in threatening numbers in many of these countries.
Non-state actors if you will. Terrorists. The Long War. I think Russia will
have more problems with violent Muslim extremists than the United States, based
on history, geography, ethnic and religious make-up, politics, and economic or
geo-political opportunity. It is also based on demographics, which is how many
kids are being born and raised.
A common
theme about Muslim places and followers is the potential to produce those that
take the beliefs or political rallies to a violent extreme, like other known
violent ideological extremist groups such as neo-nationalists (nazis),
Communists, anarchists, and others. For example, when ISIS stood up in Syria in
2014 and spread to Iraq and other external provinces worldwide, Tunisia had
thousands of volunteers go to join the cause and fight. This can happen from
the United States or anywhere.
Africa:
- government type, percent Muslim, total population (source: Statista, Wikipedia)
Morocco – monarchy, 99 %, 36.7 million
Mauritania – limited democracy, 99.9 %, 4.3 million
Senegal – democracy, 94 %, 17.2 million
The Gambia – democracy, 90 %, 2.5 million
Guinea – democracy, 85 %, 12.9 million
Guinea-Bissau, democracy, 50%, 1.6 million
Sierra Leone – democracy, 60 %, 8.3 million
Burkina Faso - democracy, 61 %, 21.5 million
Mali - democracy, 90 %, 21.5 million
Niger - democracy, 80 %, 24.1 million
Chad - democracy, 52.1 %, 16.8 million
Algeria - limited democracy, 99 %, 45.4 million
Tunisia - democracy, 98 %, 11.8 million
Libya - democracy, country split in two parts, south is
under-governed, 96.6 %, 7.1 million
Egypt – democracy, 90 %, 103.9 million
Sudan – democracy, 97 %, 44.8 million
Djibouti – democracy, 94 %, 1.0 million
Somalia – limited democracy, two split off nations,
(Puntland, Somaliland), 99.8 %, 16.4 million
Mayotte – democracy, 97 %, 0.3 million
Comoros – democracy, 98 %, 0.8 million
Many of
the 19 African Muslim nations are stable countries with decent governments in
theory. However, most of the countries suffer from poverty and corruption.
Their overall populations struggle to thrive or create enough wealth for much
of their populations to enter the world market of upward expansion. As to their
contribution to the world outside of the African continent, I would note three
things that affect and influence the greater world by these Muslim nations.
Perhaps four, if I consider my Yale African Studies doctorate friend, college professor
Joseph, who focuses a lot on music.
1.
Most of these countries have many migrants and
refugees who push away from the continent, becoming large parts of other
communities and nations, often becoming significant minorities in Western
societies. Some are educated in Russia, or the former Soviet Union, while
others go to eastern parts in Asia, but the largest concentrations of these
emigres are in the Western World.[1]
2.
These African Muslims are part of the world
economy, most of their contributions would be characterized as producing commodities
like oil, gas, crops, and metals or other precious elements. Smuggling in
illicit areas occurs, to included humans, drugs, and arms.
3.
The religious factor creates a yearly traffic to
the cities of Saudi Arabia yearly through the system of hajj, the pilgrimage to
Mecca and Medina. This creates revenue and has social impact beyond the
borders, clans, tribes, of which the people belong in Africa. They tune in to
other influences of the Muslim world, to include the messages of militant
jihadists
4.
Music and art come from many of these peoples
and their countries, creating a greater world connectivity of cultures, which
can be secular, religious, and ideological.
Asia –
government, percent Muslim (source – Wikipedia)
How many Asian Muslim nations are
there? Twenty-seven (27)
Azerbaijan – democracy, 96.9 %, 10.2 million
Iran – Shia republic, 99 %,85.8 million
Turkiye – limited democracy, 99.8 %, 84.7 million
Syria – totalitarian family dictatorship, 87 %, 18.3 million
Lebanon – democracy, 54 %, 6.8 million
Palestine – democracy, 93 %, 5.2 million
Jordan – monarchy, 94 %, 11.3 million
Saudi Arabia – monarchy, 100 %, 35 million
Yemen – civil war, democracy, 99.5 %, 31.2 million
Oman – monarchy?, 99 %, 4.5 million
U.A.E. – principalities, 80 %, 9.3 million
Qatar – monarchy, 77.5 %, 2.8 million
Bahrain – monarchy, 81.2 %, 1.5 million
Kuwait – monarchy, 85 %, 4.7 million
Iraq – democracy, 98 % (Shabak and Yazzidi), 41.2 million
Kazakhstan – democracy, 70.2 %, 19.3 million
Turkmenistan – autocracy, 96.1 %, 6.1 million
Uzbekistan – democracy, 96.5 %, 35.8 million
Tajikistan – democracy, 98 %, 9.5 million
Kyrgyzstan – democracy, 90.6 %, 6.8 million
Afghanistan – Sunni regime, 99.7 %, 32.9 million
Pakistan – democracy, 96.5 %, 229.5 million
Maldives - unitary presidential constitutional republic, 100
%, 0.4 million
Bangladesh – democracy, 90.4 %, 165.2 million
Malaysia – democracy, 61.3 %, 32.8 million
Indonesia – democracy, 86.7 %, 275.8 million
Brunei – monarchy, 82.7 % 0.4 million
27 Muslim
majority countries of various sizes are located all across Asia, tending to be
southern, some of which are doing better economically than others. Afghanistan
is now likely pulling up the rear in economic strength due to the restoration
of the Taliban in 2021. Many of these places and peoples more directly affect
Russia than the others. There are six former Soviet Republics that are Muslim
that were part of the “Russian Empire”, therefore there are many Muslims from
those countries in Russia proper today. I have seen figures of 2 to 3 million Muslims
re-located or immigrated from the Central Asian countries in the capital Moscow
alone, plus some Azeris from the Caucuses, plus the internal Russian Autonomous
Republics like Chechnya and Dagestan and a few others that are now living
within Russian territories. Some of them are survivors of the conflicts of the
1990s, some of them still carry grudges against the Russian government.
Muslim Ethnic and Jihadi Efforts in
Russia
Chechnya. Yes, there were some good-sized
wars there in the 1990s; many people were hurt and destroyed. Many of the
survivors sought revenge against the then Democratic Russia. These 1990s wars
created animosity and bad blood, plus it generated interest from global jihadis
to go there and fight the atheists, the enemies of Islam, a bit like
Afghanistan. And, this was inside of Russia, on its southernmost borders. The
wars were fought in the decade while Boris Yeltsin was officially the
figurehead in power. I am sure that Vladimir Putin was watching and/or
controlling Russian troop efforts in Chechnya and neighboring Dagestan, two
enclaves of Muslim Russians seeking more independence or autonomy from Moscow.
The Russians opposed Chechen independence tooth and nail, and eventually in
1999 Chechnya was overwhelmingly conquered, subdued by the successor to Boris
Yeltsin, none other than Vladimir Putin, within his first six months in office.
Next door Dagestan, another of the
89 or so Autonomous Republics within current Russia, has people who are likely
as traditionally Muslim as Chechnya, but not willing to fight the giant central
government like their neighbors to the east have. Chechnya has dearly paid the
price for their battles and wars against the superior central government, and
now a major Chechnyan leader helps Putin and his Russian troops in Ukraine,
fighting for Russian control. I do not know how many Chechens are fighting for
Russia against Ukrainian militants and troops; many are considered mercenaries.
A true holy warrior, militant jihadi,
or a mujahid from any country would consider any Chechen to fight for Russia instead
of against it a sellout, an apostate, or wayward. Although, since the victims
in Ukraine are other seculars or Christians, that is to be debated. The
terrorist group ISIS, (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/or Shem), declaring
itself authority in 2014, has definitions for many “wayward” Muslims who become
their targets along with non-Muslim threats, non-believers, or infidels.
Al-Qaeda, of Bin Ladin and 9/11/2001 infamy, also has stringent ways of viewing
those people who should be true believers and are not. I do not think that
Salafi, Wahhabi, militant Muslim movements or their operatives will be
forgiving of those that do the Russian’s bidding against any non-Muslim entity
or country, like the Ukraine. Perhaps Putin has promised the Chechens greater
stakes or autonomy for them based on this land grab and Chechen assistance to
take parts of Ukraine?
I believe that Islamic militant
extremists will eventually be a larger problem for the Russian government,
unless they are willing to provide more power and freedom to its Muslim
citizens, which are an ever-growing minority. I do not see the current Russian
regime being flexible enough to appease Muslim interests, or the more extreme
violent factions of Islam. A population dynamic that has been evident for a
long time, perhaps since the dawn of Communism back in the 1900s is that Russia
is not having many children to replace their ethnic identity. Besides the
millions killed in direct conflict with Germany and internally to their
despotic leaders (Stalin foremost), ethnic Russian babies are not coming at a
fast enough rate to replace the parents, and the society is leaning downward.
Meanwhile, millions of Russian Muslims are having more children. Some are
internal, like the Chechens, while others are immigrants from the former Soviet
Union.
Future of Extremists in the
World
Russia should be very careful with
their next war against Chechnya or other Muslim enemies opposed to their state
controls and influence. Russia has bolstered one autocratic regime in Syria in
2015, which is Alawite, which is closer to Shia Islam. There are Russian groups that have sent
contractors to other Muslim countries, like Libya, and elsewhere, from former military
elements now called Wagner. Now that the Russian military has been considerably
weakened in this war with Ukraine, they have been dealt some serious setbacks. Many
think that Russia has been degraded as to their combat strength and
effectiveness, and that they are no longer esteemed as a “near peer”, as they
had been by the United States and others. They are still very powerful, of
course, and we know their nuclear capabilities are real and lethal.
While Russia in 2022 may be
consolidating some control, territory, and wealth in these ethnically heavy
Russian parts of ostensibly former Ukraine, I think that Russia has overplayed
its hand, and will lose more and more, as its own decreasing population seems
to reflect. The rise of the Muslim populations in the 21st century
bodes ill for Russia, as the border countries, the internal populations, and
even more external entities of militants will see Russia as a target of
aggression for perceived threats and insults, an easier target than the United
States and China, two enemies of extremist Muslims. Groups like Al-Qaeda and
ISIS, and a few others that are jihadi or Wahhabi with violent intentions for
their homelands or other places are a threat to much of the free, secular,
non-Muslim, and of course Muslim world. I think that Russia will be an more
suitable or accessible target for such actors in the years to come. The U.S. is
pretty tolerant at home towards peoples of all faiths, and China is not tolerant
or good to Muslims, but very strong. Europe has its issues with extremist
Islam, too, but I think that Russia as an extension of that great continent
will have plenty to deal with when it comes to Islamic fascism in the years to
come.
[1]
Note: Nigeria has a huge number of Muslims but has a slight majority Christian
and animist followers; in and of itself,
Nigeria has more followers of Islam than any other African nation, one of the
highest counts of adherents in the world.
