Muslim Issues in Russia. 2022 Conjecture.

              I became aware of Muslim state actors as a small child in 1979 when the Shia Muslim regime took over the country of Iran from their king, a traditional monarch known as the Shah. The U.S. Embassy in Teheran was famously taken over and our U.S. embassy citizens were held hostage for over a year. The religious figure Ayatollah Khomeini became the Irani terrorist rogue leader, much like the despots that we have seen in Cuba and North Korea. There is one supreme leader in the Republic of Iran, backed by other committees and clerics, under the authority of the supposed consent of the people, in this case the top religious leader in Persia. Cuba is under a secular communist setting with a despot, made possible by violent overthrow of an alleged capitalist dictatorship in the largest island of the Caribbean, while North Korea claimed a secular communist imprimatur of the people, as any socialist or Marxist government asserts. Three generations of a strong man and religious state cult have developed for the Kim family there.    

              Cuba and North Korea are more anomalous as Marxist bastions underlined by secular, yet personalized autocracy, while there are many nations controlled or influenced by Islam and its believers. Many of these nations are democratic, and others ruled by monarchs are relatively peaceful. The Muslim world, or nations that are predominantly populated by people of the Islamic faith, are very numerous in the globe, especially through Asia and Africa. Turkiye borders into Europe; there are large populations of Muslim majorities in Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. With healthy Muslim minority numbers in many European countries, those four in the southeast corner are notable. Across the gamut of Muslim countries and regions there are democracies, monarchies, dictatorships, and civil wars fracturing the seams across these nations, from Brunei to Morocco, spanning millions of people and thousands of miles.

              I will list the Muslim predominant nations and their governments by region in Africa and Asia. My point about Russian tension or overlap with the Muslim world in Russia will be stated below these lists. The brief description of the government is mostly my quick attempt to summarize them. Some of these governments and their rules change quickly, based on coup d’états, revolutions, civil wars, catastrophes, economic upheaval, and things of sudden happenstance. Part of the question of the state is that no matter the form of governance, jihadi actors are potentially prevalent in threatening numbers in many of these countries. Non-state actors if you will. Terrorists. The Long War. I think Russia will have more problems with violent Muslim extremists than the United States, based on history, geography, ethnic and religious make-up, politics, and economic or geo-political opportunity. It is also based on demographics, which is how many kids are being born and raised.

              A common theme about Muslim places and followers is the potential to produce those that take the beliefs or political rallies to a violent extreme, like other known violent ideological extremist groups such as neo-nationalists (nazis), Communists, anarchists, and others. For example, when ISIS stood up in Syria in 2014 and spread to Iraq and other external provinces worldwide, Tunisia had thousands of volunteers go to join the cause and fight. This can happen from the United States or anywhere.

Africa: - government type, percent Muslim, total population (source: Statista, Wikipedia)

Morocco – monarchy, 99 %, 36.7 million

Mauritania – limited democracy, 99.9 %, 4.3 million

Senegal – democracy, 94 %, 17.2 million

The Gambia – democracy, 90 %, 2.5 million

Guinea – democracy, 85 %, 12.9 million

Guinea-Bissau, democracy, 50%, 1.6 million

Sierra Leone – democracy, 60 %, 8.3 million

Burkina Faso - democracy, 61 %, 21.5 million

Mali - democracy, 90 %, 21.5 million

Niger - democracy, 80 %, 24.1 million

Chad - democracy, 52.1 %, 16.8 million

Algeria - limited democracy, 99 %, 45.4 million

Tunisia - democracy, 98 %, 11.8 million

Libya - democracy, country split in two parts, south is under-governed, 96.6 %, 7.1 million

Egypt – democracy, 90 %, 103.9 million

Sudan – democracy, 97 %, 44.8 million

Djibouti – democracy, 94 %, 1.0 million

Somalia – limited democracy, two split off nations, (Puntland, Somaliland), 99.8 %, 16.4 million

Mayotte – democracy, 97 %, 0.3 million

Comoros – democracy, 98 %, 0.8 million

              Many of the 19 African Muslim nations are stable countries with decent governments in theory. However, most of the countries suffer from poverty and corruption. Their overall populations struggle to thrive or create enough wealth for much of their populations to enter the world market of upward expansion. As to their contribution to the world outside of the African continent, I would note three things that affect and influence the greater world by these Muslim nations. Perhaps four, if I consider my Yale African Studies doctorate friend, college professor Joseph, who focuses a lot on music.

1.       Most of these countries have many migrants and refugees who push away from the continent, becoming large parts of other communities and nations, often becoming significant minorities in Western societies. Some are educated in Russia, or the former Soviet Union, while others go to eastern parts in Asia, but the largest concentrations of these emigres are in the Western World.[1]

2.       These African Muslims are part of the world economy, most of their contributions would be characterized as producing commodities like oil, gas, crops, and metals or other precious elements. Smuggling in illicit areas occurs, to included humans, drugs, and arms.

3.       The religious factor creates a yearly traffic to the cities of Saudi Arabia yearly through the system of hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina. This creates revenue and has social impact beyond the borders, clans, tribes, of which the people belong in Africa. They tune in to other influences of the Muslim world, to include the messages of militant jihadists

4.       Music and art come from many of these peoples and their countries, creating a greater world connectivity of cultures, which can be secular, religious, and ideological.

Asia – government, percent Muslim (source – Wikipedia)

How many Asian Muslim nations are there? Twenty-seven (27)

Azerbaijan – democracy, 96.9 %, 10.2 million

Iran – Shia republic, 99 %,85.8 million

Turkiye – limited democracy, 99.8 %, 84.7 million

Syria – totalitarian family dictatorship, 87 %, 18.3 million

Lebanon – democracy, 54 %, 6.8 million

Palestine – democracy, 93 %, 5.2 million

Jordan – monarchy, 94 %, 11.3 million

Saudi Arabia – monarchy, 100 %, 35 million

Yemen – civil war, democracy, 99.5 %, 31.2 million

Oman – monarchy?, 99 %, 4.5 million

U.A.E. – principalities, 80 %, 9.3 million

Qatar – monarchy, 77.5 %, 2.8 million

Bahrain – monarchy, 81.2 %, 1.5 million

Kuwait – monarchy, 85 %, 4.7 million

Iraq – democracy, 98 % (Shabak and Yazzidi), 41.2 million

Kazakhstan – democracy, 70.2 %, 19.3 million

Turkmenistan – autocracy, 96.1 %, 6.1 million

Uzbekistan – democracy, 96.5 %, 35.8 million

Tajikistan – democracy, 98 %, 9.5 million

Kyrgyzstan – democracy, 90.6 %, 6.8 million

Afghanistan – Sunni regime, 99.7 %, 32.9 million

Pakistan – democracy, 96.5 %, 229.5 million

Maldives - unitary presidential constitutional republic, 100 %, 0.4 million

Bangladesh – democracy, 90.4 %, 165.2 million

Malaysia – democracy, 61.3 %, 32.8 million

Indonesia – democracy, 86.7 %, 275.8 million

Brunei – monarchy, 82.7 % 0.4 million

              27 Muslim majority countries of various sizes are located all across Asia, tending to be southern, some of which are doing better economically than others. Afghanistan is now likely pulling up the rear in economic strength due to the restoration of the Taliban in 2021. Many of these places and peoples more directly affect Russia than the others. There are six former Soviet Republics that are Muslim that were part of the “Russian Empire”, therefore there are many Muslims from those countries in Russia proper today. I have seen figures of 2 to 3 million Muslims re-located or immigrated from the Central Asian countries in the capital Moscow alone, plus some Azeris from the Caucuses, plus the internal Russian Autonomous Republics like Chechnya and Dagestan and a few others that are now living within Russian territories. Some of them are survivors of the conflicts of the 1990s, some of them still carry grudges against the Russian government.

              Muslim Ethnic and Jihadi Efforts in Russia

Chechnya. Yes, there were some good-sized wars there in the 1990s; many people were hurt and destroyed. Many of the survivors sought revenge against the then Democratic Russia. These 1990s wars created animosity and bad blood, plus it generated interest from global jihadis to go there and fight the atheists, the enemies of Islam, a bit like Afghanistan. And, this was inside of Russia, on its southernmost borders. The wars were fought in the decade while Boris Yeltsin was officially the figurehead in power. I am sure that Vladimir Putin was watching and/or controlling Russian troop efforts in Chechnya and neighboring Dagestan, two enclaves of Muslim Russians seeking more independence or autonomy from Moscow. The Russians opposed Chechen independence tooth and nail, and eventually in 1999 Chechnya was overwhelmingly conquered, subdued by the successor to Boris Yeltsin, none other than Vladimir Putin, within his first six months in office.

Next door Dagestan, another of the 89 or so Autonomous Republics within current Russia, has people who are likely as traditionally Muslim as Chechnya, but not willing to fight the giant central government like their neighbors to the east have. Chechnya has dearly paid the price for their battles and wars against the superior central government, and now a major Chechnyan leader helps Putin and his Russian troops in Ukraine, fighting for Russian control. I do not know how many Chechens are fighting for Russia against Ukrainian militants and troops; many are considered mercenaries.

A true holy warrior, militant jihadi, or a mujahid from any country would consider any Chechen to fight for Russia instead of against it a sellout, an apostate, or wayward. Although, since the victims in Ukraine are other seculars or Christians, that is to be debated. The terrorist group ISIS, (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/or Shem), declaring itself authority in 2014, has definitions for many “wayward” Muslims who become their targets along with non-Muslim threats, non-believers, or infidels. Al-Qaeda, of Bin Ladin and 9/11/2001 infamy, also has stringent ways of viewing those people who should be true believers and are not. I do not think that Salafi, Wahhabi, militant Muslim movements or their operatives will be forgiving of those that do the Russian’s bidding against any non-Muslim entity or country, like the Ukraine. Perhaps Putin has promised the Chechens greater stakes or autonomy for them based on this land grab and Chechen assistance to take parts of Ukraine?

I believe that Islamic militant extremists will eventually be a larger problem for the Russian government, unless they are willing to provide more power and freedom to its Muslim citizens, which are an ever-growing minority. I do not see the current Russian regime being flexible enough to appease Muslim interests, or the more extreme violent factions of Islam. A population dynamic that has been evident for a long time, perhaps since the dawn of Communism back in the 1900s is that Russia is not having many children to replace their ethnic identity. Besides the millions killed in direct conflict with Germany and internally to their despotic leaders (Stalin foremost), ethnic Russian babies are not coming at a fast enough rate to replace the parents, and the society is leaning downward. Meanwhile, millions of Russian Muslims are having more children. Some are internal, like the Chechens, while others are immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

Future of Extremists in the World

Russia should be very careful with their next war against Chechnya or other Muslim enemies opposed to their state controls and influence. Russia has bolstered one autocratic regime in Syria in 2015, which is Alawite, which is closer to Shia Islam.  There are Russian groups that have sent contractors to other Muslim countries, like Libya, and elsewhere, from former military elements now called Wagner. Now that the Russian military has been considerably weakened in this war with Ukraine, they have been dealt some serious setbacks. Many think that Russia has been degraded as to their combat strength and effectiveness, and that they are no longer esteemed as a “near peer”, as they had been by the United States and others. They are still very powerful, of course, and we know their nuclear capabilities are real and lethal.

While Russia in 2022 may be consolidating some control, territory, and wealth in these ethnically heavy Russian parts of ostensibly former Ukraine, I think that Russia has overplayed its hand, and will lose more and more, as its own decreasing population seems to reflect. The rise of the Muslim populations in the 21^st century bodes ill for Russia, as the border countries, the internal populations, and even more external entities of militants will see Russia as a target of aggression for perceived threats and insults, an easier target than the United States and China, two enemies of extremist Muslims. Groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and a few others that are jihadi or Wahhabi with violent intentions for their homelands or other places are a threat to much of the free, secular, non-Muslim, and of course Muslim world. I think that Russia will be an more suitable or accessible target for such actors in the years to come. The U.S. is pretty tolerant at home towards peoples of all faiths, and China is not tolerant or good to Muslims, but very strong. Europe has its issues with extremist Islam, too, but I think that Russia as an extension of that great continent will have plenty to deal with when it comes to Islamic fascism in the years to come.

 

 

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[1] Note: Nigeria has a huge number of Muslims but has a slight majority Christian and animist followers;  in and of itself, Nigeria has more followers of Islam than any other African nation, one of the highest counts of adherents in the world.