Home School Fans Episode 1: Preseason Predictions - 2022 Pt.1

Home School Fans Episode 1: Preseason Predictions - 2022 Part 1 of a Few

    Hello Home School fans! Last year my smaller and more exclusive target audience and I were living in a desert, so it was for "Desert Fans" in 2021. Now, I find myself in more homier circumstances, so I am going with the "Home School" theme. The format is that I will follow seven FBS (Football Bowl Series) teams every week, including this preseason speculation time, anticipating the upcoming blockbuster of a year in top tiered college football. I think it will be very cool, and some traditional powers will fall. I hope.

    Last year I lauded the hardest worker in college football analysis, Phil Steele, but I think he came up short, especially with picking Clemson to finish on top. He picked them number two, I think to Alabama, or maybe Georgia, and the Tigers lost the smash up matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs in September, and then lost twice more. The Tigers fell. And, gratefully, the Crimson Tide did too. Georgia prevailed, and Michigan and surprising Cincinnati made the four-team college championship. Not Clemson, not Oklahoma. And Texas was down. The Buckeyes were usurped.

    This year I have Lindy's and Athlon's magazines; I am not going by Phil Steele's ratings much. I have considered those two sources that I purchased in local grocery stories, plus some USA Today and CBSSports; I will use the latter to track my seven chosen teams, some of them rated pretty high (low) in the total of 131 teams. Like the newbie, James Madison Dukes. One mag rates them 110 out of 131.

    Here are the seven teams in order of which I think they will finish: Utah, Texas A&M, BYU, Fresno State, Virginia, Indiana, and James Madison. I will predict what may happen to each team below. Some picks will be surprising, hopeful, and non-conforming to the traditional powers of Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma... I want different, so that is how I am shaping these results for the future. Vivre la difference! But, these things could happen. We shall see. Survive the season, all of us.

    1) Utah Utes. I predict: ... (drum roll) ... That Utah sweeps the table and wins the national championship! It is going to be their year, finally. They should have been given better respect a few years ago when they crushed Alabama in the regular season game, and then Florida and Tebow ended up winning the whole thing, despite losing to Mississippi, if memory serves. Karma may catch up in 2022-3. It would be quite a story. Starting with the same Gators that were favored over da Utes.    

    I am a Brigham Young alum, and I love the Cougars, but I do root for all Utah schools when I can. I want both the Utah squad and the PAC-12 to have a tremendous run shock the world. And if BYU happens to be in that proximate area, of course, go BYU Blue. It's just I think the Running Utes have a few more tools. We shall see.

    Early hurdle for the first game in the SEC's Florida Gators, at the Swamp.  Then some San Diego State Aztecs, and on and on to the PAC-12 gauntlet, without Washington or the Cal Bears. Tough outs? USC, Oregon, possibly ULCA or Stanford. The Ducks of Oregon are ranked at 11, the Trojans are rated in the low 20s, then UCLA at 30 (close to the Gators), Oregon State at 42, ASU 58, Stanford 65, SDSU 69, WSU 70, Arizona and Colorado 82 and 83.

    Not too hard. Not like the Big Ten, or Big 12, or SEC. If the Utes stay healthy and have a few bounces go their way, turnovers and kicks, instead of against, I see Utah matching up with... Alabama? Oklahoma? Ohio State? Not Michigan in the Rose Bowl, as most pundits have posited.

        The year of the Utes, and the Aggies. I don't mean Utah State, who may play well in the Mountain West, but I mean...

    2) Texas A&M Aggies.

More on them in the next segment.

Desert Fans Episode 1: Preseason (From 2021)

 

Desert Fans Episode 1: Preseason

It was the summer of 2000 when I first saw the Phil Steele College Football book. Or maybe 2001. Either way, I became convinced that he was the smartest guy in the game, and win or lose he was so passionate about college football that he could explain almost everything and it makes sense. I do not buy his magazine every year, but I know what he is doing, and I look at his rankings and predictions, and I think that he knows the future the best, because he studies the most and takes in the most factors.

This season while some of us are far from our favorite campuses, I felt excited to do some reporting on our favorite teams. I will share some Steele and other thoughts, but I will certainly inject my own. First, the Phil Steele picks according to which teams we are covering (seven total).

4. Clemson Tigers

5. Georgia Bulldogs

7. Notre Dame Irish

16. Miami Hurricanes

18. Indiana Hoosiers

UNRANKED: Brigham Young Cougars

UNRANKED: Auburn Tigers

1) Clemson has been one of the most dominant teams nationally for the last four years, mostly while their stud Trevor Lawrence was at the helm. They have a ton of talent back; they have rolled the ACC pretty handily. Will they hit a snag, potentially, this year? Right off the bat September 5^th they have Georgia, rated number 5. It should be a big litmus test for sure. That may be the biggest game of the weekend in the whole country in terms of top finishes for all teams going into the season, as an overall body for best record produced. We shall see. 

Georgia Tech may not provide much competition week three, although the running game that Tech offers does get some defenses overwhelmed. In total, the Clemson schedule does not look that difficult (Syracuse gave them a scare recently), and so after the Bulldogs, perhaps these Tigers are looking to finish strong, early loss to Georgia or no. The only other ACC teams ranked in the top 25 (according to Steel), are Miami and North Carolina, and the Tigers of South Carolina play neither until possibly the ACC Championship, likely the first weekend of December. Florida State and Louisville are traditionally strong opponents, so there are some teams to be reckoned with. You never know. But Steele has them picked to do well. 11-1 or 12-0 records seem likely, 13-0 if they win out in December.

2) Georgia, Georgia, Georgia. So close, but so far from the national title! Sorry, Bulldog fans, I get it. I wish you had beaten Alabama a number of times. Or LSU, or Clemson, or Oklahoma, or whomever you came up short against. Florida? The SEC is not easy at all, we know. We already discussed the big September opener that Georgia hosts, which everyone cares about. Arkansas, Auburn, and Kentucky may test them in October, and maybe even Missouri and Tennessee may prove tough after that, but perhaps this is the Dogs’ year to go to the SEC championship and nail the Tide? We shall see. 

I will be a Georgia guy that day, if that is how it plays out. (Steele has ‘Bama number two after Oklahoma). To me, Alabama is number one until proven otherwise. Can anyone please beat them? I would root for teams that I normally hate, like USC or Florida State, if that could only happen. (War Eagle? More on them in a sec).

3) The Irish of Notre Dame. Forever spurning the Big Ten to join as a conference competitor, perhaps something may change now that the two best Big 12 programs are joining the Southeastern Conference to make a super group of 16. The Big Ten is at 14 schools, if you did not know. The Atlantic Coast Conference is at 14. The Irish mostly play the latter, with a good sprinkling of the former. The Golden Domers open with Florida State. Permission from yours truly to drop them by 40! I think I really started disliking FSU when they were consistently beating my teams, and they acted like that was normal. Maybe it was normal, but no more! 

The Irish will face a bevy of ranked opponents, to include Wisconsin, Cincinnati, UNC, and some perennial bowl teams like Navy, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Stanford. No easy schedule, but doable if the Irish really are as good as Steele predicts. It all starts September 6^th; enjoy. Win by one or 30, please beat the Seminoles. Watch out for Purdue, too, they can louse up a whole season. I know this all too well. Watch out for the Cardinal, too, but hosting in South Bend should make that more tenable.

4) The U.

Miami and all that swagger, we know what goes on. We see it. There will not be much of a bigger ‘Cane fan than me when they match up with the Crimson Tide September 4^th. Game ON ! Oh, as much as my world was rocked by BYU upsetting powerhouse Miami in 1990, how would it be if the mighty Tide were to fall that Thursday night? Oh, it gives me chills to contemplate in the 115 degrees where I commonly find myself. The schedule for Miami of Florida (I grew up about 2 hours from Miami, Ohio) does not look too threatening. 

Some are picking Michigan State to be among the worst in the Big Ten, and I am not sure if Virginia Tech or Virginia will be that good this year, but both programs offer some challenges. UNC and even Florida State may prove problematic, but I could see the ‘Canes doing well this season. Super-duper if things work out in early September. No matter what, Miami should be a formidable team this year. Would they line up with Clemson in the ACC championship? Seems likely. If so, go ‘Canes again! (Nothing personal against the Tiger fans. I was happy y’all beat ‘Bama a few years ago, for sure.)

5) Indiana Hoosiers. We are ranked! It takes some getting used to, absorbing that. I say “we”, because not only did I grow up a short walk from campus, but I ended up getting a certified degree there, too. I am a Hoosier, and the Hoosiers are me. We open with Iowa on September 4^th; they are not ranked by Steele, which is good. But I have seen the Cream and Crimson get stomped by the Hawkeyes, so I take nothing for granted. The Bearcats of Cincy will be a big test, then Penn State and Ohio State are ranked. The Nittany Lions had us all but beat last year; IU barely got a last-minute TD to tie it, and then a favorable call to score a two point conversion for the win in Over Time. Lucky, really lucky. 

IU also gave the Buckeyes a little scare, and the pandemic shortened season was one of Indiana’s best ever, despite losing to a so-so SEC Mississippi team in the bowl. IU has to handle the lesser Big Ten teams, and it could be a special season the Cream and Crimson. Like a lot of years, if we do not beat Purdue likely it will not be a good season. Minnesota might be a big test, and Maryland can be an unknown sometimes. Oh, yeah, then there is Michigan. Could we make it two in a row, instead of just twice upsetting them in my entire life? (I am old, too.) The Wolverines. Life is great when IU beats them. We shall see.

6) Auburn Tigers. I guess War Damn is a thing, so I hear. I love to see the cross-state rival put down the bullies of Nick Saban, apparently now the best college football coach of all time, even surpassing Bear Bryant. Incredible. I am more tired of the Tide than I am of Tom Brady. I know that the NFL is different, but you know what I mean. Auburn opens with two easy victims before facing Penn State September 19. I expect basketball scores for the Tigers till then, against the Zips (yes, Akron is called that) and the Alabama State (FCS lower division team) I have no ideas. 

October gets going strong with LSU, Georgia, and the rest of the SEC foes until the Iron Bowl on November 27. I will be extremely happy if Alabama could lose twice or thrice in a regular season. How about once? Auburn should have a good season, I predict. As mentioned before, the SEC is not easy at all. Even the “bad” teams can beat most other schools. I won’t mind seeing Auburn and other traditional SEC teams dumping on Texas and Oklahoma in the near future. Change is now.

7) Brigham Young University Cougars. My parents became church members before I was born, and then I learned to dig the grid iron Cougs as Lavell Edwards brought them out of obscurity. I later attended there, and now I try to see them play anywhere along the East Coast. I would have driven to Georgia Southern this fall, but the desert life beckons. BYU opens with a predicted easy Arizona Wildcats on September 5, but then we (yes, I am alumni) got arch rival Utah the next weekend. If BYU loses to ‘Zona, the season could get ugly. If we crush the Cats and then beat Utah, finally after nine long, painful years of frustration, then the season might be special like last season. 

During the pandemic lock down last year the brain trust in Provo smartly readjusted its schedule because the many Big Ten and PAC 12 cancellations forced the Y to get mostly weaker opponents, which the later number two NFL pick quarterback Zach Wilson showed that BYU was a good team. It lost in a close one to last minute scheduled Coastal Carolina, which was a surprisingly good team to everyone, and BYU cruised in its bowl to finish 11-1, one of its best seasons ever. BYU has some tougher teams to play this year, to include possibly ranked team Arizona State, Boise State, and USC. If it can handle Baylor and Virginia, major conference teams (called Power Five schools), and take care of the smaller teams like Utah State and South Florida, then this could be a ranked year for BYU.

But, Phil Steele does not have them there. That worries me. However, based on personal expectations and real history, I have more reasons to think that BYU will outperform predictions than Indiana. Once bitten, or a hundred times bitten, many times over shy. I love to see my teams win. I am sure you get a charge from yours winning, scoring, shutting down their opponents on a sunny fall day or a crisp, chilly evening. Being in a desert and somewhat isolated as many of us are, these schools, teams, players, re-connect us to what we love. Guys and fans and bands and commentators celebrating the best of the best.

Here’s to college football in 2021. Enjoy, and get ready for some fun and drama. The good kind.

Further context on predictions and rankings.

BYU was not ranked, nor was Auburn, according to Steele, who could be wrong. Athlon Sports has a prediction for all 130 FBS schools by season’s end, which are the following per the ones sampled above:

BYU –51

Auburn –29

Indiana—21

Miami—14

Notre Dame—12

Georgia—5

Clemson—2

Also, a good number of the opponents of the above teams like Iowa, Arizona State, and Boise State are ranked top 25 by Athlon Sports which were not rated as such by Mr. Steele. Athlon picks Alabama as number one, so maybe Ohio State or another team, like the Clemson/Georgia winner, might be the final season champ. Should be interesting, as always. 

I tend to wonder if a PAC-12 team could run the table, which has not happened since Southern California in 2003 and 2004, the former shared with Louisiana State, the latter with an asterisk because of cheating allegations. Perhaps a team like Washington could shock everyone. Likely not. Athlon has them at 22, although Phil Steele predicts them as number 9. Talking over things with another fan, we realized that Georgia has a lot of good or great teams, but never gets over the hump to win it all. Washington seems to be the same way. Great players, strong teams, but like Oregon, cannot put it all together.

01 August 2021

 

I edited a bit a year plus later multiple sets of eyes... better.

Seven Teams and their Fates, Fall 2022 - What Could Go Right?

Seven FBS Teams and their Fates, Fall 2022 - What Will Happen?

Does it matter, any of it? Maybe not. Will it add up to anything? Possibly not. However: 

I like this. I find it compelling.

    I am going to track seven teams, with some predictions and hopes. It doesn't take me too long, and I tend to think about these things whether I record them or not. So I will jot a few impressions and things down. Like last season. I may publish last season's reports, too, just for kicks, and more proper reflection.

Yeah.

    First, the teams to be previewed with a few short weeks till opening games on August 27. A through G.

I will put what Linday's (x) and Athlon [y] have rated them pre-season, which magazines I own.

A) Texas A & M ....... (5), [5] Disparity: 0

B) Utah ..................... (7), [8] Disparity: 1

C) BYU....................(19), [27] Disparity: 8

D) Virginia...............(33), [68] Disparity: 35 (!!!)

E) Fresno State.........(35), [35] Disparity: 0 

F) Indiana................ (71), [82] Disparity: 11

G) James Madison...(110),[98] Disparity: 12

What about CBSPORTS? That will probably be the guide I go by the rest of the season. I will list the first opponent that they have, and a brief assessment of that matchup.

A) Utah (4) at Florida (30). Decent test.

B) Texas A & M (9) v. Sam Houston (FCS, lower tier). Cake walk.

C) BYU (26) at South Florida (110). If the Bulls are really that bad, fine. The Y has never won in the state. Out of about 7 tries.

D) Fresno St. (39) v. Cal-Poly (FCS, lower tier). Should be a blow out, Dogs.

E) Virginia (59) v. Richmond (FCS, lower tier). Good warm up for Cavs - Wahoos.

F) Indiana (88) v. Illinois (82). Big test. IU's season may depend on a win here. Staying healthy, gaining experience and confidence. Go Hoosiers! Athlon has Illini 15 ranks better (67 to 82), and Lindy's 7 ranks worse (78 to 71). Let's hope Lindy's is more accurate. If IU is as bad as CBSSports thinks, it will be a sad season.

G) James Madison (110) v. Middle Tennessee State (112). Toss up, but I think the emotions will be with the newly FBS-christened Dukes. Making it the 131st in the club.

    I have hopes that Utah can run the table, and Texas A & M would be a cool run as well. BYU has a rather deeper team than normal, we think, so if they show up against their power opponents and the rest, why not all three? That seems unlikely, because the Big Ten and the SEC would surely have another team. Alabama and Ohio State, likely.

    What would happen if we had, by this December:

    Utah Utes                 13-0

    Texas A&M Aggies  13-0

    BYU Cougars          12-0 (no conference championship)

    Alabama                  11-2 (loses twice to Aggies)

    Ohio State                13-0

    We would need two losses by the vaunted Crimson Tide for the Cougars to get in to the CFP (final four), even undefeated in Provo. Then again, if someone else beat Alabama, and the Aggies of College Station were 12-1 (winning the SEC championship), this could potentially line up a dream semifinal scenario for me:

Ohio State versus BYU, Utah versus Texas A & M. Imagine! 

These are pipe dreams, but we can dream. Until that first loss...

Most magazines are picking Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Georgia, or Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia.

    Very southern centric, with soon to be OK Sooners part of the Southeastern Conference. The PAC-12 has received short shrift all these years, plus no team has been dominant enough to crack the Semifinal code. Combination bad luck and not good enough. 

    It would be sweet to see Utah run it. And, of course, the less likely Cougars. I am the same unrealistic Hoosier homer that thinks the men of Bloomington could go 7-5. 

    WE SHALL SEE. That is why we play the games!

    And the Cougs may pass up some programs in all time winning percentage.

To be determined. Stay tuned. More on each team next time. Talents, win projections, hopes.

Nelson Cruz: Quite A Night, Quite a Career

    Last night in Nats Park the struggling hometown side got some clutch hits from their oldest player, first year Nat (or did we get him last year?) Nelson Cruz, the 39th best all-time home run hitter. He tied the game with a huge 2 RBI double, and then got the game winning home run against the Cubs. The Cubs are not that great, granted, but the Nats have been bottoming out. Since last year. No, since the pandemic-shortened season of 2020. Since the World Series of 2019.

    Nelson has done a lot. Good that there is now a Designated Hitter in the National League. Thanks, corona virus pandemic! Well, things have changed the last few years. Cruz has not changed too much, and getting things done at 42.

Years. Old. Not bad.

He is the third highest hitting batter of homers still playing, after Cabrera and Pujols. Hall of Famer? The next two months may favor him. I hope so.

    Meanwhile, they activated speedster future short stop C.J. Abrams, and my personal fav Papa Joey Meneses from Culiacan, Mexico, who is popping the ball hard.

    He finally made the majors at age 30. Great story. We cannot be the best every year...

    

No Soto? No problem... We hope.

2022 College Football Preview - Me Style - Plan on Fun Times

    Last season, 2021, was fun, exciting, motivating, and a nice time for me to have a limited audience to cater to as far as certain teams and their fates in FBS college football. Those were the top 129 or 130 teams of the sport. I gave weekly reports on all seven, till the bowl games.

    I figured it was Georgia's year, and I was right. They did win the whole grand salami. I met some people on a military base that inspired me to be a little Bulldog, too. But a lot of that motivation for Georgia to prevail was to see ANYBODY beat Alabama. The defense came through at the end. It was nice for Georgia to get the 42-year monkey off their back, or however long it took. Since the renowned Herschel Walker was there? Yeah, I think so. I do recall those days. Now he is trying to be a politician. Gotta love it, America.

    This year? Again, anyone who can knock off top rated Alabama. I am all for it! Even USC? Hmmmm... yeah, even them. However, luckily for all humanity, Utah is predicted to be better than USC, the Trojans of the L.A. city that will soon enough join the Big Ten. That is still sinking in. Nebraska and Maryland and Rutgers, sure, but ... southern Cal? In my home region Big Ten? Now to be 16 teams? The squads that I tracked week to week last year were:

1. Georgia

2. Notre Dame

3. BYU

4. Clemson

5. Auburn

6. Miami

7. Indiana

    Did I leave someone out? No, those were the teams of my small target audience.

This year, I will switch it up. My teams, BYU and IU, will remain, because this is "Me Style". However, I wish to follow Utah, who I would not mind winning the national championship at all. I root for Utah when they are not playing my Cougars. And we (Brigham Young) finally beat them last year. And we do not play them this year. Unless we got them in a bowl. How crazy would two undefeated Utah schools be in a College Football Championship game? Wow. It is possible.

I should follow seven teams, but who?

1. Utah.

2. BYU.

3. Indiana.

4. I should pick an ACC team. Or Notre Dame. I will pick Virginia. Home school, sort of.

5. Should pick an SEC school. I have liked Texas A & M for a while, and they have military connections. 

6. How about a team that BYU can surpass in winning percentage? Welcome to the jungle, James Madison. A former elite of the FCS. (next-tiered teams, maybe 159 or so... I blogged about this a few weeks ago...)

7. And... A Mountain West team? Why not... Fresno State? Another historically winning program that BYU could pass in winning percentage this season? Or not?

Russell M. Nelson's Dedication of Holy Place in a Familiar Place

Russell M. Nelson's Dedication of Holy Space in a Familiar Place

    Today was a landmark day for me, my family, my church, and what I believe is awesome for the United States of America and the greater world. The greater part of humanity, mankind and all with it, all majesty and creation, past, present, and future.

    That is my belief. I will expound a little.

    The Washington D.C Temple, located in Kensington, Maryland, on the north side of the beltway, is a feature of the region, the overall panorama of the city.

    Some do not know it, and most do not know (or realistically, believe) the true significance of its purpose, function, and meaning.

    But we try.

    President Nelson, President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, for about the last five or so active years, has been a dynamo since taking office from his predecessor, Thomas S. Monson. President Monson was called as an apostle back in the early 1960s when he was quite young for such a calling, while Russell came into the Quorum of the Twelve older in the year 1984. He was a successful heart surgeon in his prime, and was a Captain in the U.S. Army during the Korean War. He worked on wounded troops and others, then when finishing he came back to Walter Reed Military Hospital, not too far from the eventual temple to the north, "on 16th and Columbia", as he remarked today to thousands of us, attending in person and via close circuit television.

    He talked about being called as second counselor of the bishopric of the ward in D.C. back then, and being assigned to work with the deacons, who were 12-13 years old. Those boys would now be old men. He rattled off the names of men in the priesthood that he served with, and some were ward members and others were in the high council of the stake back then. He is 97. Incredible memory, he only slowed once, when he mentioned a comment on the preceding speaker Elder Quentin L. Cook. (Of the Quorum of the Twelve).

    He gave a brief history of the holy temples on the earth, like the "portable" tabernacle of the Israelites with Moses, then the temple of Zerubbabel, then the temple of the Solomon, then the temple of Herod, the "one that Jesus knew".

    He elicited some chuckles, but also some audible acknowledgment, when he commented how the Savior first described the temple of Herod as "My Father's House", then later "My House", and then finally "Your House". The temple, he added, was destroyed by the Romans in A.D. 70. He said the year in that order.

    He made some remarks regarding the fact that there are 51 temples under construction presently (2022), and there will be more temples in his next time to speak to us. (General Conference in October, less than two months from now.)

    There was an audible response to that comment.

    He blessed the temple, and it was wonderful. I shed a few tears, as he blessed the grounds and the country, for its inspired Constitution and for our freedoms and strength of our nation, the site of the Restoration of the Gospel of Jesus Christ, all in the Fullness of Times. This is it, folks! Jump on board. Stay on, hold tight.

    Others spoke, including a Sister Wright of the Primary Presidency, and the aforementioned Elder Cook, and two elderly Marriotts, who helped establish the Church in the D.C area and have contributed hugely to the modern Church of Jesus Christ.

    This was a joyous occasion. Momentous to me and many others.

    We look forward to going much more frequently. It has been a long wait, about 4 and half years. 

    

My parents attended the original dedication with Spencer W. Kimball in 1974 as six year converts. They brought little me along with them, and my sisters.

    President Kimball asked the doctor Nelson to go along as medical aid, and President Nelson remarked today that he helped out an elderly brother with a medical urgency during the first dedicatory session in November 1974, but was able to attend a later one.

    This is not a coincidence or small thing to me or others.

    Truly outstanding.

    Cheers, oh ye Saints! Rise up, o holy generations.

    God bless you as He has blessed us.

Come Listen to a Prophet's Voice - D.C. Temple Re-Dedication

    Yes, I am a believer. I believe in Jesus Christ, I believe in His Church on the earth, I believe that Russell M. Nelson is currently His prophet.

    It is a creed of sorts, and it encompasses many things.

    A big part of it is modern day prophecy, which ties into the Bible, and the Book of Mormon, and the prophecies of a slew of modern-day prophets.

    It is all contingent upon Jesus the Anointed One. After that, other pieces and places and people fall into place.

    It's a lot. A German co-worker overseas said "your church has a lot of rules".

    Yes. I agree.

    But laws, standards, doctrines, and correct practices make us free.

    Especially if they are based on true things. Which is predicated on faith, and based on my personal understanding and experience, intuition and hope.

    Yep, I will go with this guy. And the Big Guy. No disrespect intended; the Savior should receive all the glory.

    I should share more the D.C. parts later.