The Russians are Still Coming

 April Fools, 2021. Russia is still Russia. 

   The Russian Empire, as it were, has been a growing presence for hundreds of years, and despite the wishes and even metrics of negative decline that are observed of it, Mother Russia seems to be as active as ever, marching on with power and influence.

    The United States and the Western countries fear this, some more than others, because Russia has proven to be belligerent and cruel, even as recently as the last few years, for the West more recently in Syria, defending the now considered pariah son of Hafez Al-Assad, Bashar Al-Assad. Many of us naively believed that the Arab Spring of 2011 would sweep away such lifetime autocrats, but this son has proven as sticky and gritty as his father, or even more so. His dad was bad back in the 1970s and 1980s; now the son has proven even worse. But the country is not what it used to be, which is comforting to many, where at least some independent Syrians, claiming to be free or liberty seeking, or the oft abused Kurds are staking their claims, but along with the necessary presence of Turks, in formerly controlled Syrian sovereign space of the north. The U.S. has its stakes south nearer Jordan and Iraq, and then there are replete Shia powers, to include both Lebanon to the southwest and Iraq and Iraq to the east, closer and farther, respectively.

   Russia swooped in militarily in 2015, as a surprise to many, to save the Assad regime against the freedom fighters and the jihadi terrorists, not to mention Irani-backed militias, this a repressive government and country that had leaned socialist/communist in the past, friends of the former U.S.S.R. Surely Russia wishes to have power, control, influence, military sway, and placement in a vital part of the world. This was after the crazy paradigm changing year of 2014, where after the nice and peaceful Winter Games in Sochi (southern Russia), the Russian government supported the ethnic Russians of eastern Ukraine to overtake Crimea, a hugely important part of the former Soviet independent and Western leaning bread basket and wealthy Soviet Empire.

   Russian military had their way in Georgia in 2008, and practiced a lot of warfare in the interior Autonomous Republic Chechnya in the 1990s, a very grisly affair. Russian shows no signs of changing, as perpetual president in place Vladimir Putin will continue to push the might is right policy of pushing its way and politics through money and troops, now to include mercenaries and former military "advisors" in many conflicted nations.

     Mercenaries travel and military advisors consult and guide, a lot like the United States, sure, many would argue fairly. But, there are profound and subtle differences between Americans who go around the world as pay-for-hire versus the Russians, and this from an American, I admit my biases. We all like to make money, this is the root and driving force of so much weapons traffic and armed conflicts in many hot and cold spots across the globe. 

   The Russians have their aims, culturally, militarily, politically, economically, and in sheer force of geography. Sea ports, trade, power and control. Expansion, as truly great (powerful and/or terrible) nations do.

   And thus, this empire has not ended, and it looks to grow again after a few decades of seemingly diminishing. Romney was right when laughed at in 2012 in the fall debate; China looms there, too, but the Russians are more like us in many ways, and thus they are the competition against which we are pitted for places in Asia and hearts and minds in Asia, Africa, South America. Apparently we know and purport that they care a bit about U.S. domestic politics and our home affairs as well. The Russians wish to make us as divided as possible in cyber wars and social media, makes sense. Soft but passive-aggressive war and and interference, or "influencing", as some call it now.

    Russians: not all bad, but certainly not all good.

    We have similar goals and aspirations, claims and strategies. We have competed with them harshly before, and we continue to do so.

   The Great Game is still afoot, the British are with us, as other Western powers, as they of the English-speaking isle based empire fought Russians going on two centuries ago, and perhaps the theory of Halford Mackinder is actually and truly in effect, for "he who controls the center [meaning Asia, the world's largest land mass] controls the world." This theory was developed largely before the oil and gas deposits were discovered and exploited, and also before maritime and air and now space transport and conveyance were so strongly at play. With satellites and cables and the Internet of Things, the world has changed in its geographic "center", as it was. But some things from the 19th century have not changed. Key spots and choke points are still key to the world's power structures. He/she/they that hold the most vital territories win the game.

   And the quest for world power continues; Russia will not rest.

   Neither will we; we stay vigilant. Whether we vote left or right, the American people do not sleep too easily on a country with forceful ambitions, whether in the Western Hemisphere next door, ever true the Monroe Doctrine, or across the oceans where we send troops for essential or debated flareups. We have our own problems in house in the 2020s, certainly, but we are used to seeing problematic bullies crop up across the maps. It happens every generation, at least.

 

   We will see you around the corner, sooner or later, big bullies. Threaten your own people of their rights or the smaller countries by your side, we stand by ready to counter your coercion and potential violence or suppression.

 

   Although Star Trek or Arthur C. Clarke in the 2001 Space Odyssey film series predicts, someday we may be friends, or much more friendlier when it comes to dealing with each other and our neighbors, maybe the West and the East, that great land ruled by Moscow, will get along in good fashion as time progresses. Who knows?

   Till then.