Saturday, May 7, 2016

Global Economic Increase versus Political Strife

Global Economic Increase versus Political Strife: the Human Quotient on the Ledger


Of course, if I were really fatalistic then I would be all pessimistic on how we are ruining the physical and climatological prospects for life on our planet in the 21st century, from a "green" ecological standpoint. However, I would prefer to discuss the general economic prosperity that seems to continually increase worldwide while it is sometimes waylaid by wars and political issues. Economic progress in one corner versus government and societal woes in the other, awaiting a possible ugly duel in the middle of the ring.

Will financial and developmental stability overtake the aparent unending quest for conflict? Can we have peace and human advancement in all fronts, as we solve diseases and other human sufferings like hunger, famine, natural catastrophes and illiteracy?

In many parts of the world the human condition where we find ourselves in 2016 is looking rosier due to the elevation of the conditions of those who have traditionally suffered in poverty and underdevelopment. The progress of China and India alone is commendable, which accounts for almost 3 of the 7 billion inhabitants of the world today. Villagers and city dwellers who suffered hunger, disease, and lack of education are now receiving opportunities to live pretty decent lives.

The wealth of the Chinese common populace has been remarkable. Before them places like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have done wonders when it comes to higher standards of living. The Philipines, Indonesia, and Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations still have a ways to come. But they are all progressing, through food production, education, health care, communication and markets.

Some may argue that poverty and ignorance in the United States is still endemic, but the perpetual land of opportunity and riches is still that,  while education and health care and retirement savings is still a continual battle among the haves and have-nots of our land. But as a sub-continental professor once remarked at UCLA: the destitute of India, like Kulkuttya or so many other teeming regions of poor would love to have the lifestyles of the poorest parts of Compton or Watts, the most meager parts of Los Angeles.

Latin America, the Caribbean and huge swaths of Africa and Asia are all developing far better than in previous centuries. The "first world", or the "North countries" from Russia through Europe to the Western Hemisphere are constantly adding wealth, despite pockets of woes as described above in relative terms to other places of more real despair.

As we stand in 2016, there are five major areas of real concern where governments and their respective peoples are led by chaos and insecurity, all of them Arab to some degree or another. The relative calm of Afghanistan is still somewhat violent but balanced.

The five other nations are realistically divided and more or less chaotic are:

Syria: divided into four main factions.
Yemen: divided into three main areas.
Somalia: divided into three parts, the longest lasting division of the former central government. It has been a non-unitary actor for decades.
Libya: divided at least 3 ways.
Iraq: ISIS has substantial chunks of the country.

Three of these arose since the Arab Spring of 2011, while Iraq and Somalia pre-date them. Some might argue that their precedents have lead to other problems that are in effect now.

Is our world going smaller in factions and nations?

Is South Sudan the future?
Are the major central governments of the 20th century going extinct?

And the bottom line question of economics is: despite peace and prosperity appearing to lead to greater human happiness through better wealth for all, will factors of sectarianism or tribalism or idealism (sometimes guised in the veil of religious or other extremism) counter the peace prospect? Or worse yet, are the left wing conspiracy theorist believers right about right wingers or pure deadly capitalists counting on perpetual war to promote financial wealth?

What does the invisible hand of Adam Smith have to do with the movements of the 21st century? Are God and Satan having their big arm wrestling match? What say ye, Monsieur Smith?

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