Historical Major League Home Run Comparisons
Bryce Harper has had his first break-out season at age 22 in his fourth year in the majors, showing the promise that his contemporary Mike Trout of the LA Angels has produced better until this year. Both showed power in the home run category this 2015 season, after both completing four total; Bryce did extremely well in all facets except stolen bases. Since 2012, Mike and Bryce are two of the most promising five tool athletes in baseball. Although Giancarlo Stanton and and a handful of others show tremendous promise as well in the long ball category for career aspirations in home runs (among other things), I wanted to look at how the top ten home run hitters of all time were doing at this similar point in their careers after their first four years.1st All time---Barry Bonds [762]:
The current all-time HR leader for career home runs is Barry Bonds, (played 1986-2007), whose record is tainted as the numbers seem exaggerated due to accusations and alleged proof of cheating with performance enhancing drugs. He was a loner, mostly, and could be abrasive towards everyone, especially the media. He did not start in the majors until he was 22 years-old:
Age HRs Year
22 26 1986
23 30 1987
24 34 1988
25 30 1989 Totals after 4 Years at Age 25: 110
Bryce comes up 13 homers short of the all time best, but he will get three more seasons to match that before he is the same age that Barry was. Harper has a chance to gain over the long haul if he stays healthy and productive.
2nd All time---Hank Aaron [755]:
No tainted record for Hammerin' Hank, as the guy who beat Ruth in 1974, he played (1954-1976) a long, productive career. Being African-American, he was fortunate Branch Rickey, Jackie Robinson and others paved the way so that he would play his entire career in the integrated system. Thank goodness the U.S. got this part right by the 1950s.
Age HRs Year
20 27 1954
21 37 1955
22 34 1956
23 30 1957 Totals after 4 Years at Age 23: 128Bryce can catch this number can catch this number pretty easily with a decent, or "normal but not outstanding" 2016 campaign. It would also help if the Nationals could make the play-offs like 2012 and 2014, and unlike those years go past the first round.
3rd All time---Babe Ruth [714]
Played from 1914 to 1935. He became the epitome and standard of power, but not at first.
Age HRs Year
19 0 1914
20 4 1915
21 3 1916
22 2 1917 Totals after 4 Years at Age 22: 9The Bambino, aka Sultan of Swat, did not start pounding the leather until he arrived in New York in 1920, and changed the game overnight. His career triumphs came in droves in the 1920s and he had very productive years into the 1930s. His single-season record of 60 dingers stood till Roger Maris in 1960, and then the career mark surpassed as noted 14 years later. Could Bryce ever get those types of years? Maybe pitchers will choose to walk him more than the Babe.
4th All time--- Alex Rodriguez [687]
Still not done as of 2015. But marked by strength enhancers, or also accused of cheating to get some of the results. At least he got some decent numbers this past season while supposedly clean of drugs and also pretty old, after being out for more than a year while hurt then suspended.
Age HRs Year
19 0 1994
20 5 1995
21 36 1956
22 23 1997 Totals after 4 Years at Age 22: 64He did not play many games his first year in Seattle (17 with 54 at-bats, 1994-present), but by age 21 he proved he had real power. As of the fall/winter of 2015/2016 he is within reach of catching the top three. But again, he and Barry appear to carry less glory due to their use of drugs.
5th All-time: Willie Mays [660]
The "Say Hey Kid" was a natural talent in all aspects of the game. He had no weaknesses throughout a tremendous career (1951-1973). Notice the Korean War Years in his early career.
Age HRs Year
20 20 1951
21 4 1953
23 41 1954
24 51 1955 Totals after 4 Years at Age 24: 115Mays was definitely one of the best of all time. Harper would be fine in doing as much as him.
6th All-time: Ken Griffey, Jr. [630]
His dad, like Barry Bonds', gave him a leg up in the introduction to the game. But Kenneth made it on his own in a career plagued by injuries at the end (1989-2010).
Age HRs Year
20 0 1994
21 5 1995
22 36 1996
23 23 1997 Totals after 4 Years at Age 23: 64At Bryce's age now he became productive. And he had many great years, hurt as a few were by the 1994 strike, plus his ailments by the last ten years of his play.
7th All-time: Jim Thome [618]
Really powerful hitter in the day and age of the power hitters (1991-2012).
Age HRs Year
21 1 1991
22 2 1992
23 7 1993
24 20 1994 Totals after 4 Years at Age 24: 30Thome had a slow start but found a decisive groove in home runs as he aged. What if Bryce got stronger like that during his trajectory?
8th All-time: Sammy Sosa [606]
Slammin' Sammy is yet another guy who did steroids or whatever (1989-2007), and people, especially baseball purists who vote in the Hall of Fame, do not go for those numbers despite their high status on paper.
Age HRs Year
Age HRs Year
21 4 1989
22 15 1990
23 10 1991
24 8 1992 Totals after 4 Years at Age 24: 37Sosa did not get going for a while, and maybe that "while" necessitated drugs to make the difference.
9th All-time: Frank Robinson[586]
He started off with a bang and played twenty excellent years (1956-1976).Age HRs Year
21 38 1956
22 29 1957
23 31 1958
24 36 1959 Totals after 4 Years at Age 24: 134Bryce still has a chance to catch him at this age since he started younger (19 instead of 21). But nobody else had a better first four years in the top ten all-time. Mike Trout has similar power numbers after four years (currently) and one year younger than Robinson.
10th All-time: Mark McGuire [583]
Mark started a little later and more mature, and didn't have a really lengthy career (played from 1986-2001). And he also juiced with creatin, among other things apparently.
Age HRs Year
23 3 1986
24 49 1987
25 32 1988
25 36 1999 Totals after 4 Years at Age 25: 118Mark certainly had a robust home run career that got going with a huge bang at age 24, but the overall numbers are not good enough, especially since he was caught juicing like some of the others above.
The future looks promising for ambitious Bryce Harper with 97 HRs at age 22.
But Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton, and maybe even more short term Albert Pujols and a couple others may threaten all of the above.
Let's see where we stand in 2025, ten years from now.
Blog on, EMC.
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